Before the financial crash in 2009, there existed measurable patterns that indicated the level of credit risk. Again, the interpretation is a work of art. The movie, “The Big Short,” for example, suggests that the Wall Street establishment did not know the housing crash was coming, which unwinds all the credit-risk derivatives.
Since credit-risk derivatives are designed to protect creditors from default, and default is a sure bet, being a cyclical risk, by design, there is really no betting going on. It is a game, with a strategy, but it is not a betting game. It is a deliberate concentration of risk, lending into larceny.
(See “Simulation of a Hoax” by griffithlighton.)
The current debate over profiting from the housing bust, which is the result of a financial crisis, is salient. Millions of people lost billions of dollars in net worth, suddenly; and billions more will continue to be lost in late order, intending to the next financial crisis that Dodd-Frank says “will surely happen.” The interpretation is that it just–“poof”–disappeared into nothingness, but that’s just a hoax (“fraud as a business model”).
Profiting from the misery of others is, objectively, NOT OK! Naturally, pro-cyclical programs, sold as pro-growth, occupy a lot of political space, and will continue to, over time.
Since the time is always now in all the futures, it is possible to increase the velocity of the fully assumed risk, which is exactly what the binome is in-tending to resist.
Vote for Sanders and watch the magic of pro-growth policies and programs just kinda-sorta happen in all the futures now.