A key indicator of rising risk is volume data.
There is a rising rate of interest in treasury bonds due to rising, geopolitical risk. The visual interpretation is the yield curve, which has steepened.
Changes in graphic curves (occupying space over time) result in patterns that indicate future trends now (kurtosis). Financial-risk analysts regard a flattening curve to indicate deflation. It has been flat and going negative at times (like I’ve been telling you) for years. These are the systematic incentives referred to in the previous article that analysts use to measure, and predict, the probable risk now.
The yield curve steepened on high volume, which means the short term rate fell against rising bond prices. A steeper curve is supposed to indicate less deflationary risk in the future, and it does, but it is “currently” an unfavorable measure of the probable future, indicated by currency flows now, existing on demand.
Political-economists agree that, historically, massive accumulations of wealth tend to result in massive distributions on demand. Warfare is a mass means of distribution with a high level of historical frequency, and it “just happens” on demand, with a threat to national or global security. An early indicator is a steepening yield curve against an otherwise deflationary trend, like we have now, with the kurtosis being shaped at the short end of the curve.
Historically, as well, war and the threat of war is a means of financially gaming the system.
When wealth gets massively accumulated, a distribution will occur (the risk of loss is fully assumed in priority). It just happens to be, the way the system is configured, there is the incentive to use the value surplussed (in the form of “currency” or useful value) to wage war, by default.
What happens if “We” have a deliberate distribution on the accumulation that avoids the default, financial condition “on demand.” What naturally happens if 99.9 percent of us are actually on the supply-side, in priority, now!
Through market mechanics, always available now, the “ruling class” effectively becomes the ruled. Incentives are naturally aligned. “They” are naturally subjected, aggressing a passive resistance, by default (with the risk of loss, fully assumed in priority, being the natural sum of the squares), existing (supplied and unregulated) on demand.